Samsung, SK hynix cut NAND wafer output to shore up margins

Samsung and SK hynix are reducing their flash wafer output this year to increase profitability, according to analyst firm Omdia.

Korea’s Chosun Biz outlet cites Omdia figures, saying Samsung will cut NAND wafer starts from 4.9 million in 2025 to 4.68 million this year – a 4.5 percent reduction. SK hynix will institute a 10 percent cut, from 2025’s 1.9 million wafers to 1.7 million this year. Despite NAND demand surging due to AI workloads and prices rising, the two Korean manufacturers, which represent 60 percent of the global NAND market, are shrinking their production output. This could cause prices to rise even further.

HPC and AI parallel file system supplier VDURA says a 30 TB TLC (3 bits/cell) enterprise SSD costs $10,950 now, up almost 260 percent from nine months ago when it was priced at $3,062.

Omdia NAND market tracker numbers tend to get revised. In November, another Chosun Biz report cited Omdia saying Samsung had reduced its 2025 NAND wafer output to 4.72 million, from 5.07 million in 2024 – a 12.8 percent cut. Now it says Samsung produced 4.9 million wafers in 2025, not 4.72 million.

The same upward Omdia revision has occurred with SK Hynix wafer output as well. The November Omdia wafer numbers for 2025 were 1.8 million, down from 2024’s 2.01 million. But the current Omdia estimate for SK Hynix’s 2025 wafer production is 1.9 million. The message here is to view Omdia’s NAND wafer production forecasts as likely being exaggerated one way or the other.

Omdia also said in November that Kioxia’s NAND wafer output in 2024 was 4.8 million and that dropped to 4.69 million in 2025. It hasn’t revealed the latest Kioxia NAND wafer production forecast.

A complicating factor is that actual NAND bit output from Samsung and SK hynix could actually rise, as TLC flash is giving way to 33.33 percent denser QLC (4 bits/cell) NAND. Samsung and SK Hynix have to alter their production processes to make this transition and that will tend to reduce wafer output as equipment is modified and production and testing sequences are updated.

One other relevant point is that both Samsung and SK Hynix are seeing extraordinary demand for their high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products and this is influencing their production capacity and investment decisions. A dollar spent on HBM production capacity will generate more revenue than one spent on NAND. This does not affect Kioxia and Sandisk as they don’t make DRAM. A prolonged NAND shortage could encourage them to increase their NAND output.